Strongest Issue Breadth 4-Month Performance EVER!
Issue Breadth Statistics are the single most reliable indicator of what is going on in the stock market --- daily, monthly, annually, whatever. Clearly, if more issues are going up in price more often than down, most of the time, for a meaningful period of time, so should the Equity Bucket of the investment portfolio. Historically, NYSE Issue Breadth (History) have never been individual-equity-only statistics, and today, they count more derivative "products" than anything else.
IGVSI "breadth statistics" signal changes in direction within the Investment Grade Value Stock universe alone --- all CEFs, ETFs, REITs, and preferreds (and individual issues that are NOT investment grade) are excluded. Current IGVSI Issue Breadth Statistics allow MCIM investors to look inside our index to obtain a better feel for what has been going on.
Cumulative issue breadth figures were negative from June '07 through February '10 --- roughly thirty-three months, and a longer than usual correction. In March '09, we soared into the black and the up trend has continued through April 2013 --- perhaps the best forty-nine months in a row ever!
We've now had four consecutive years of positive issue breadth ---- but the past two were significantly weaker than the previous two. I doubt, looking back, that you would be quick to find another period that exhibited this level of upside strength.... and yet the "Bull" continues running through 2013!
The only question is:
When (not if) Will The Party End?
From an issue breadth standpoint, the rally was weakening through December. Up days vs. down days were barely positive. At the same time, income CEFs surged upward to the highest levels in recent memory, before faltering due to tax-code-change-worries at year end. Study the WCMSM line here.
January - April Issue Breadth Numbers Are Reminiscent of 1987 and May Be A Warning Sign --- Pay Attention!
If your portfolios (both equity and income) are not well above financial crisis lows (March '09), perhaps you should try an old approach --- MCIM portfolios have most likely been outperforming MPT portfolios for over forty years.
Next Statistic Stop: The Investment Grade Value Stock Expectation Analyzer.
This Article
(c) 2013 by Steve Selengut
